Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Is Global Warming A Threat To Security If So, Why If Not, Why Not Essay

Is Global Warming A Threat To Security If So, Why If Not, Why Not Essay Is Global Warming A Threat To Security If So, Why If Not, Why Not â€" Essay Example > 22/02/ 2011Global warmingIntroductionI agree that global warming is a treat to national security. This can be seen through three different aspects. These three major aspects give a clear demonstration of how global warming is a treat to national security. Among these aspects are variability of natural resources and increase in scarcity, intensification of natural disaster and sea level rise. Increase in scarcity of resources give more emphasis on globalization is becoming a treat to national security. The dynamics of scarcity of resources â€" in particular negative changes in per capita resource access â€" imposes more challenges on a static society (Terriff, et al 1999). Global worming after mat are unexpected or sudden climate induce events such as tropical storms, droughts and flash floods which constituted a larger threat to human security than gradual reductions in resource availability (Sheehan, 2007). Despite the mechanism that have been put in place in attempt to combat th ese calamities such as establishing costly shock-resilient buffers or robust infrastructure, financial pools the challenges of global warming is persistent (Terriff, et al 1999). Overall, the expect unpredicted events is more hazardous to the prospects of sustained peace than less rapid changes in resource availability, which in turn are likely to be more harmful than a stable but scarce resource base (Terriff, et al 1999). What has become more crucial over the recent past is the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of affected societies and determining whether armed conflict is a potential end result of worsening climatic conditions (Sheehan, 2007). A summarize on prevailing evidence on how climate change is expected to affect the national security can be broadly illustrated in the three environmental phenomena as below. Resource scarcityChanges in climate have adverse security implication on availability of resources necessary to sustained livelihood through its effects (Sheehan, 2007). In line with common practice, scarcity is defined as low per-capita access to a resource (Dannreuther, 2007). The scarcity of resources is referred to low availability of renewable resources per capita such as freshwater (Terriff, et al 1999). The dwindling resource is increasing the scarcity of resources and the consequence of either one (or both) of the two processes is the increased demand for the resource through increased population (Sheehan, 2007). What constitutes greatest challenge to human livelihood is the high level of unpredictability rather than increasing scarcity which is generally regarded as more harmful than scarcity per se (Terriff, et al 1999). According to AR4 report and other recent studies that bear the same similarities on the environment impacts on national security, climate changes vary enormously between regions (Sheehan, 2007). According to AR4 report some regions are likely to benefit from an increase in average temperature (Dannreuther, 2007). A good example is Northern Europe which expected increased crop yields when climate changes; global warming (Sheehan, 2007). This is in contrast to the rest of the world global warming. Northern Europe have experience an increased in forest growth, decreased energy demand for heating, and reduced mortality from cold exposure (Terriff, et al 1999). What is happening in the rest of the world is contrary, most parts of the world including the most densely populated regions, face a grimmer future (Houghton, 2004). As result of temperature increase precipitation patterns changes causing an overall reduction in annual rainfall (Terriff, et al 1999). More implications to subsistence resources are crucial since it become more and more scarce (Sheehan, 2007). The recent report given by AR4 predicts a rise in the regions mid-latitudes by 2050 and reduction of 10â€"30% in average water availability and river runoff in dry tropics and (Dannreuther, 2007). The consumption of ground water is li kely to exacerbate in many areas which may negatively impact on aquifers. The aquifers are likely to be contaminated or depleted which will result in further reduction freshwater supply (Sheehan, 2007). The implication of warmer climate in region like Himalayas, the Andes is the melting of glaciers and several other major sources of water in the dry season for large sections of the developing world (Terriff, et al 1999). The extreme precipitation increases top soil leading to infertility of the land hence reduction in food production (Maslin 2007). Evaporation is also perceived as major contributing factor to desertification (Terriff, et al 1999). The impact of climate changes on agricultural output varies according to form of agriculture (Sheehan, 2007). The warmer climate is likely to tape off the yield of rain fed harvest especially in dry land (Terriff, et al 1999). On the other hand the returns from irrigated crops might increase with moderate warming. The substantially more robust against further temperature rise with is likely consequences such as less reliable precipitation patterns (Sheehan, 2007). According to Dannreuther, (2007) a tropical climate is already a great impediment to agricultural productivity through the unsuitability of tropical soil to large-scale mechanized farming and the high disease burden (Sheehan, 2007).